The deck we presented can be accessed HERE.

Highlights —

We acknowledged our predictions have changed enormously in this (domestic AND foreign) event-driven year . . .  from, prior to Biden’s withdrawal, an 80-20 chance Trump would win . . . to 65-35 immediately on Biden’s withdrawal . . . to 55-35 as Harris caught on . . . to a mid-September call of 50-50.

We told them – given ignorance of really good polling in Wisconsin and strong reservations about Democratic performance in Pennsylvania (and Harris’s decision NOT to choose Gov. Shapiro as her running mate) that if the election were held TODAY (which it is not, early voting aside), we would predict Harris wins the popular vote, but by not enough in swing states to keep Trump from winning the electoral vote.

But for most (60%?) voters, the election will be November 5.  When all those votes are counted (with federal courts still to decide whether ballots postmarked by election day can be counted in the days after) who do we think will win?  IF Harris’s momentum sustains – and/or if Trump self-destructs (but what, after all he’s done/endured would be destructive?) – Harris will win.  But we need to see a LOT more polls and understand the effectiveness of BOTH parties’ GOTV efforts in the swing states (especially Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin).

We told them we were most confident about predicting the GOP will take control of the U.S. Senate.  Given the sure Democrat loss in West Virginia, the Democrats would then have to win EVERY other close race to have a 50-50 Senate . . . and it seems unlikely to us Tester will overcome Trump’s lead in Montana, and we’ve got reservations about the Democrats’ chances – even though their current polling is promising – in Ohio (which Trump will carry and where Brown is seeking his fourth term), Arizona and Nevada.

Given how many more Republicans are running in districts Biden carried than Democrats in districts Trump carried, while the House is too close to call, Democrats COULD win control of the House . . . but it’s too early to tell.

Add-lib comments — 

To all that, based on late-arriving data, I added:

In terms of early voting, the terrific L2 site has a great dashboard that reports as of yesterday, when 3.8% of early voter ballots had been requested, the early requests were coming in 44% Democrat and 28% Republican.  There was also a gender gap, 55% women  and 45% men.  Both favor Democrats.

To those wishful-thinking Democrats who say Florida is in play, either for President or Senate (given that Scott has never run in a presidential year, has always won by low single digits AND an abortion question is on the ballot), I would point out that, in 2020 the Democrats had 97,215 MORE registered voters than Republicans.  Today, the Republicans enjoy a registration advantage of 1,026,200 . . . a 1.1+ million shift in favor of Republican registrants.

To those equally hopeful Democrats who say the disgraced GOP Governor nominee in North Carolina could make it hard for Trump to carry the state, in 2016 Trump carried North Carolina by 3.66 points while Democrat Governor Roy Cooper was elected by 0.22 points and in 2020, Trump carried the state by 1.34 points while Cooper was re-elected by 4.51 points.  While Robinson is headed to lose by far more than Cooper ever won, it is still hard to see a sufficient up-ticket “drag” on Trump, but his victories in the Tar Heel state have always been close and he HAS to win it (and Georgia).

Based on headlines, while analysis remains mixed, the momentum is, TODAY, with Harris.  While Gallup on September 24 reported, “2024 Election Environment Favorable to GOP,” on September 25 the NEW YORK TIMES reported Nate Cohn’s view, “Republicans’ Electoral College Edge, Once Seen as Ironclad, Looks to Be Fading” (a view Nate Silver has since endorsed), and in bright-red Alabama, AL.COMreported, “Oddsmakers, heavyweight pollster see major shift in the Kamala Harris, Donald Trump race.”

We’re still 38 days from the election . . . and a possible “October Surprise” (although what is left by which we could be surprised, all the tragic international horrors notwithstanding?).

More to come.

John